Modelling People’s Perceptions of Environmental Issues Within GIS A Case Study Using Opinion Polls in the County of Portneuf, Canada

Progress in integrating GIS, multiple criteria decision-making methods and planning support systems are promising and could help reduce information gap and avoid potential landuse disputes. However, land planning has gradually moved into the public arena where various lobby groups promote their points of view. Fair and legitimate environmental risk management involves a balanced proportioning between considerations, on the one hand, of the physical impact on natural ecosystems and, on the other, psycho-social effects which affect the perception of, as well as any reaction to, disturbances in the surroundings. This paper develops a methodology for assessing perceived risks using a procedure which is compatible with indicators of the state of the physical environment. It uses GIS technology to detect conflictprone areas. In order to assess the relative importance of perceptual factors, this text combines a public opinion poll conducted among a sampling of the Portneuf population with a GIS presenting the distribution of features and activities across the region. Statistical analysis synthesised the information and made it possible to build behavioural models. It was carried out in three stages: contingency tests, spatial autocorrelation assessment, and discriminant analysis of respondents’ opinions. Models yield typical profiles distinguishing the factors related to the perception of environmental hazard. Some perceptions being mostly driven by location and distance to potential pollution sources, it is possible to interpolate maps of perceived risks, thus allowing planners to improve their understanding of population wills and fears. This could improve chance of social acceptance of land-use planning and environmental impact assessment. Finally, favouring early detection of conflict-prone areas, these maps provide guidelines to optimise location of new developments.